On 22nd May, Rishi Sunak announced the General Election ill take place on 4th July, and as campaigns are hotting up as the major parties jostle for voters, one thing that we haven’t heard much about yet is the housing market.
Elections normally lead to increased uncertainty and potentially some stalling in market activity, however there are currently 392,000 homes in the sales pipeline working their way to see buyers already in the process of progressing to sales completion pulling out of their sale which is positive.
Nationwide which tracks house prices at the mortgage approval stage, has found that the broad price growth trends seen in the six months leading up to an election tend to continue in a similar vein over the six months after the polling date. The notable exception was the 2019 election , when prices plummeted in its aftermath as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic (shortly followed by the stamp duty holiday).
In Rightmove’s Spring survey which gathered more than 14,000 responses between 18th and 23rd May found that 95% of prospective buyers said a general election would not change their plans which again is positive news for the housing market.
Tim Bannister of Rightmove said “over the past four years, home-movers have faced numerous challenges, including a global pandemic, a shortage of housing supply and rapidly changing prices. For many, 2024 is finally the year to make their move, and they are determined to proceed with their plans to secure their next home”
Rightmove’s own research into buyer demand in the run up to the 2015 and 2019 elections showed that it remained steady. This was measured by recording the demand from the number of people who sent enquiries to their website.
David Phillip commented that “increased certainty of the political landscape” would help to “support confidence in the market, but I see the property market poised for a robust summer, showing resilience and stability in the face of political changes. Affordability remains the most significant factor in the housing market, currently indicating that the pace and scale of the interest cuts will have more of a substantial impact on the market than the timing or outcome of the general election”
Zoopla commented that they don’t see the election having as big an impact as in previous years, particularly as there is not a huge divide in policy between the two main parties.
We have to hear exactly what housing policies the major political parties would enact should they form the next Government, but some of those involved in the sector have set out the actions they would like to see after 4th July.
- One thing most referenced by the experts is Stability – since 2010 there have been 15 housing ministers (or 16 if you take into account that Lee Rowley has held the role twice!)
- One way that could help to accelerate house-building is to streamline the planning process, which is highly complex and challenging
- Another industry bug bear is the length of time it takes for homes to complete in England and Wales – greater digital integration would ‘speed up’ transactions and reduce fall-through dates
- Will there be a reform of the Stamp Duty - The Chancellor has unveiled an election Family Home Tax Guarantee, where stamp duty will not be raised over the next 5 years -
So if you are considering whether the General Election should change your plans to sell up, the latest advice is to plough on and take advantage of the very buoyant Spring market.The long term fundamentals of supply and demand continue to be a driving force in the property sector and as forecast unexpectedly strong August market is likely to be on the cards, especially if we see interest rates continue to fall.
David Phillip has over 30 years selling properties and especially in times when the country goes to vote – if you are considering selling your home and would like a chat around how the Election may impact (or not) on the property market, call now on 01134 676 400
David Phillip Estate Agents, Bramhope, North Leeds, w:davidphillip.co.uk e;infoatdavidphillip.co.uk
Covering North Leeds, Bramhope, Adel, Cookridge, Pool-in Wharfedale and Otley